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Funnefoss / Vormsund vs Gamle Oslo — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Funnefoss / Vormsund
Funnefoss / Vormsund
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Gamle Oslo
Gamle Oslo
8/23/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 17Funnefoss gress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Funnefoss / Vormsund33%
×Draw20%
Gamle Oslo47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.93
Gamle Oslo
2.30

Gamle Oslo creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

creates per match

Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.63
Gamle Oslo
2.39

allows per match

Funnefoss / Vormsund
2.21
Gamle Oslo
2.22

finishing

Funnefoss / Vormsund+0.00on par
Gamle Oslo+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Funnefoss / Vormsund ↓

Gamle Oslo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Funnefoss / Vormsund or draw
53%
Funnefoss / Vormsund or Gamle Oslo
80%
Draw or Gamle Oslo
67%

Winning margin

Funnefoss / Vormsund wins by 2+
17%
Gamle Oslo wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Funnefoss / Vormsund 1+ goals
85%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 2+ goals
57%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 3+ goals
30%
Gamle Oslo 1+ goals
90%
Gamle Oslo 2+ goals
67%
Gamle Oslo 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Funnefoss / Vormsund (draw refunded)
42%
Gamle Oslo (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Funnefoss / Vormsund at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.21 · 19 matches

Gamle Oslo away — creates 2.39, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Funnefoss / Vormsund attack 1.63 + Gamle Oslo defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.93

Gamle Oslo attack 2.39 + Funnefoss / Vormsund defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Funnefoss / Vormsund scores more
33%
level
20%
Gamle Oslo scores more
47%

Gamle Oslo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gamle Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Funnefoss / Vormsund 1–1 Gamle Oslo

Funnefoss / Vormsund and Gamle Oslo drew 1-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on August 23, 2025.

The match was played at Funnefoss gress in Oppaker.