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Gamle Oslo vs Flint — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Gamle Oslo
Gamle Oslo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Flint
Flint
7/6/20243. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 14Vallhall Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Gamle Oslo56%
×Draw20%
Flint24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gamle Oslo
2.31
Flint
1.47

Gamle Oslo creates 57% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Gamle Oslo
2.62
Flint
1.31

allows per match

Gamle Oslo
1.62
Flint
2.00

finishing

Gamle Oslo+0.00on par
Flint+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gamle Oslo ↓

Flint →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Gamle Oslo or draw
76%
Gamle Oslo or Flint
80%
Draw or Flint
44%

Winning margin

Gamle Oslo wins by 2+
35%
Flint wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Gamle Oslo 1+ goals
90%
Gamle Oslo 2+ goals
67%
Gamle Oslo 3+ goals
40%
Flint 1+ goals
77%
Flint 2+ goals
43%
Flint 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Gamle Oslo (draw refunded)
70%
Flint (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gamle Oslo at home — creates 2.62, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Flint away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gamle Oslo attack 2.62 + Flint defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.31

Flint attack 1.31 + Gamle Oslo defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Gamle Oslo scores more
56%
level
20%
Flint scores more
24%

Gamle Oslo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Gamle Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gamle Oslo vs Flint

Flint beat Gamle Oslo 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on July 6, 2024.

The match was played at Vallhall Arena in Oslo.