Flint 2–2 Gamle Oslo: Result & Stats

Flint

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Gamle Oslo

6/1/2024

3. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 9Flint ESSO Arena A KG

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Flint33%

×Draw20%

Gamle Oslo47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FlintExpected goals in this matchGamle Oslo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

2.38

Flint

2.00

Gamle Oslo

2.38

Gamle Oslo creates 19% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.08

creates per match

2.85

1.92

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Flint

2.08

Gamle Oslo

2.85

allows per match

Flint

1.92

Gamle Oslo

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flint+0.00on par

Gamle Oslo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flint ↓

Gamle Oslo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Flint or draw

53%

Flint or Gamle Oslo

80%

Draw or Gamle Oslo

67%

Winning margin

Flint wins by 2+

18%

Gamle Oslo wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Flint 1+ goals

86%

Flint 2+ goals

59%

Flint 3+ goals

32%

Gamle Oslo 1+ goals

91%

Gamle Oslo 2+ goals

68%

Gamle Oslo 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Flint (draw refunded)

42%

Gamle Oslo (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flint at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

Gamle Oslo away — creates 2.85, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flint attack 2.08 + Gamle Oslo defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.00

Gamle Oslo attack 2.85 + Flint defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Flint scores more

33%

level

20%

Gamle Oslo scores more

47%

Gamle Oslo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gamle Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff