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Gamla Upsala W vs Älvsjö AIK W — Elitettan 2021

Gamla Upsala W
Gamla Upsala W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Älvsjö AIK W
Älvsjö AIK W
6/19/2022ElitettanElitettan · Round 12Lötens IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Gamla Upsala W50%
×Draw21%
Älvsjö AIK W29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gamla Upsala W
2.18
Älvsjö AIK W
1.64

Gamla Upsala W creates 33% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 26 away

creates per match

Gamla Upsala W
1.67
Älvsjö AIK W
1.12

allows per match

Gamla Upsala W
2.16
Älvsjö AIK W
2.69

finishing

Gamla Upsala W+0.00on par
Älvsjö AIK W+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gamla Upsala W ↓

Älvsjö AIK W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Gamla Upsala W or draw
71%
Gamla Upsala W or Älvsjö AIK W
79%
Draw or Älvsjö AIK W
50%

Winning margin

Gamla Upsala W wins by 2+
30%
Älvsjö AIK W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Gamla Upsala W 1+ goals
89%
Gamla Upsala W 2+ goals
64%
Gamla Upsala W 3+ goals
37%
Älvsjö AIK W 1+ goals
81%
Älvsjö AIK W 2+ goals
49%
Älvsjö AIK W 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Gamla Upsala W (draw refunded)
63%
Älvsjö AIK W (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gamla Upsala W at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.16 · 57 matches

Älvsjö AIK W away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.69 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gamla Upsala W attack 1.67 + Älvsjö AIK W defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.18

Älvsjö AIK W attack 1.12 + Gamla Upsala W defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Gamla Upsala W scores more
50%
level
21%
Älvsjö AIK W scores more
29%

Gamla Upsala W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Gamla Upsala W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elitettan: Gamla Upsala W 3–1 Älvsjö AIK W

Gamla Upsala W beat Älvsjö AIK W 3-1 in Elitettan on June 19, 2022.

The match was played at Lötens IP in Uppsala.