Älvsjö AIK W 0–1 Gamla Upsala W: Result & Stats

Älvsjö AIK W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Gamla Upsala W

9/17/2022

Elitettan · Round 20Älvsjö IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Älvsjö AIK W39%

×Draw23%

Gamla Upsala W37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Älvsjö AIK WExpected goals in this matchGamla Upsala W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.59

Älvsjö AIK W

1.63

Gamla Upsala W

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 57 away

1.19

creates per match

1.42

1.77

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Älvsjö AIK W

1.19

Gamla Upsala W

1.42

allows per match

Älvsjö AIK W

1.77

Gamla Upsala W

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Älvsjö AIK W+0.00on par

Gamla Upsala W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Älvsjö AIK W ↓

Gamla Upsala W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Älvsjö AIK W or draw

63%

Älvsjö AIK W or Gamla Upsala W

77%

Draw or Gamla Upsala W

61%

Winning margin

Älvsjö AIK W wins by 2+

20%

Gamla Upsala W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Älvsjö AIK W 1+ goals

80%

Älvsjö AIK W 2+ goals

48%

Älvsjö AIK W 3+ goals

22%

Gamla Upsala W 1+ goals

80%

Gamla Upsala W 2+ goals

47%

Gamla Upsala W 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Älvsjö AIK W (draw refunded)

51%

Gamla Upsala W (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Älvsjö AIK W at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.77 · 26 matches

Gamla Upsala W away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Älvsjö AIK W attack 1.19 + Gamla Upsala W defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.63

Gamla Upsala W attack 1.42 + Älvsjö AIK W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Älvsjö AIK W scores more

39%

level

23%

Gamla Upsala W scores more

37%

Älvsjö AIK W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Älvsjö AIK W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff