Gamla Upsala W 0–7 AIK W: Result & Stats

Gamla Upsala W

FT

0 – 7

HT: 0 – 3

AIK W

L. Hansen 90+3'

P. Fischerová 78'

D. Famili 64'

M. Nildén 58'

J. Nordin 44'

S. Jaatinen 26'

A. Grabus 19'

10/14/2023

Elitettan · Round 23Lötens IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Gamla Upsala W15%

×Draw16%

AIK W69%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gamla Upsala WExpected goals in this matchAIK W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

2.81

Gamla Upsala W

1.26

AIK W

2.81

AIK W creates 123% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 13 away

1.67

creates per match

3.46

2.16

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Gamla Upsala W

1.67

AIK W

3.46

allows per match

Gamla Upsala W

2.16

AIK W

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gamla Upsala W+0.00on par

AIK W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gamla Upsala W ↓

AIK W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–36%

0–45%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Gamla Upsala W or draw

31%

Gamla Upsala W or AIK W

84%

Draw or AIK W

85%

Winning margin

Gamla Upsala W wins by 2+

6%

AIK W wins by 2+

48%

Team goals

Gamla Upsala W 1+ goals

72%

Gamla Upsala W 2+ goals

36%

Gamla Upsala W 3+ goals

13%

AIK W 1+ goals

94%

AIK W 2+ goals

76%

AIK W 3+ goals

52%

Draw no bet

Gamla Upsala W (draw refunded)

18%

AIK W (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gamla Upsala W at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.16 · 57 matches

AIK W away — creates 3.46, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gamla Upsala W attack 1.67 + AIK W defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.26

AIK W attack 3.46 + Gamla Upsala W defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Gamla Upsala W scores more

15%

level

16%

AIK W scores more

69%

AIK W at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "AIK W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

19'

26'

44'

57'

N. Selin← M. Rojas Flores

58'

M. Nildén

62'

T. Barkfeldt← M. Wiklander

62'

T. Uppfeld← I. Rydell

62'

V. Heikfolk← M. Forssner

64'

D. Famili← O. Lindstedt

64'

D. Famili

73'

L. Hansen← A. Grabus

73'

M. Sjöström← M. Nildén

73'

P. Fischerová← J. Nordin

78'

P. Fischerová

84'

M. Sjostrom

90+3'

L. Hansen

Gamla

AIK

Backmark

⚽

▼

Nordin

Parkner

⚽

Jaatinen

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Mattsson

62'▲T. Barkfeldt←▼M. Wiklander

62'▲T. Uppfeld←▼I. Rydell

62'▲V. Heikfolk←▼M. Forssner

Gamla Upsala W substitutes

BarkfeldtUppfeldHeikfolkZwinkelsWänglundLundinEriksson

Manager: J. Björk

57'▲N. Selin←▼M. Rojas Flores

64'▲D. Famili←▼O. Lindstedt

73'▲L. Hansen←▼A. Grabus

73'▲M. Sjöström←▼M. Nildén

73'▲P. Fischerová←▼J. Nordin

AIK W substitutes

SelinFamiliHansenSjöströmFischerováHagströmPersbeck