AIK W 6–0 Gamla Upsala W: Result & Stats

AIK W

FT

6 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Gamla Upsala W

W. Ljung Klingwall 90+4', 90+3'

J. Nordin 77'

D. Famili 42'

M. Nildén 31'

A. Grabus 19'

5/6/2023

Elitettan · Round 5Skytteholms IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

AIK W80%

×Draw12%

Gamla Upsala W8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AIK WExpected goals in this matchGamla Upsala W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.04

0.86

AIK W

3.04

Gamla Upsala W

0.86

AIK W creates 253% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 57 away

4.00

creates per match

1.42

0.31

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

AIK W

4.00

Gamla Upsala W

1.42

allows per match

AIK W

0.31

Gamla Upsala W

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AIK W+0.00on par

Gamla Upsala W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK W ↓

Gamla Upsala W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

AIK W or draw

92%

AIK W or Gamla Upsala W

88%

Draw or Gamla Upsala W

20%

Winning margin

AIK W wins by 2+

61%

Gamla Upsala W wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

AIK W 1+ goals

95%

AIK W 2+ goals

80%

AIK W 3+ goals

57%

Gamla Upsala W 1+ goals

58%

Gamla Upsala W 2+ goals

21%

Gamla Upsala W 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

AIK W (draw refunded)

91%

Gamla Upsala W (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK W at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.31 · 13 matches

Gamla Upsala W away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK W attack 4.00 + Gamla Upsala W defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 3.04

Gamla Upsala W attack 1.42 + AIK W defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

AIK W scores more

80%

level

12%

Gamla Upsala W scores more

8%

AIK W at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "AIK W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

A. Grabus

31'

M. Nildén

42'

D. Famili

46'

T. Barkfeldt← M. Wiklander

66'

E. Jansson← A. Svensson

70'

S. Huss← M. Andersson

71'

S. Frigren← M. Sjöström

77'

J. Nordin

81'

T. Uppfeld← S. Öhlund

82'

M. Sabuni Söderling← O. Lindstedt

82'

S. Nordin← D. Famili

82'

W. Ljung Klingwall← J. Nordin

90+3'

W. Ljung Klingwall

90+4'

W. Ljung Klingwall

AIK

Gamla

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Nordin

Laukström

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: J. Björk

66'▲E. Jansson←▼A. Svensson

71'▲S. Frigren←▼M. Sjöström

82'▲M. Sabuni Söderling←▼O. Lindstedt

82'▲S. Nordin←▼D. Famili

82'▲W. Ljung Klingwall←▼J. Nordin

AIK W substitutes

JanssonFrigrenSöderlingNordinKlingwallParknerPersbeck

Manager: J. Mattsson

46'▲T. Barkfeldt←▼M. Wiklander

70'▲S. Huss←▼M. Andersson

81'▲T. Uppfeld←▼S. Öhlund

Gamla Upsala W substitutes

BarkfeldtHussUppfeldSjöströmZetterbergLundinEriksson

Elitettan: AIK W 6–0 Gamla Upsala W

AIK W beat Gamla Upsala W 6-0 in Elitettan on May 6, 2023.

Goals: A. Grabus (19'), M. Nildén (31'), D. Famili (42'), J. Nordin (77'), W. Ljung Klingwall (90+3', 90+4').

The match was played at Skytteholms IP in Solna.

AIK W vs Gamla Upsala W — Elitettan 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Elitettan: AIK W 6–0 Gamla Upsala W