Gamba Osaka vs V-varen Nagasaki — J1 League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 5+ matches
Gamba Osaka57%
V-varen Nagasaki20%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Gamba Osaka creates 83% more chances
Season form · 27 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Gamba Osaka ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Gamba Osaka at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.02 · 27 matches
V-varen Nagasaki away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.11 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Gamba Osaka attack 1.63 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.87
V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.02 + Gamba Osaka defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 57%?"
Gamba Osaka at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 57% does not mean "Gamba Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Kashima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Vissel Kobe
Machida Zelvia
FC Tokyo
Kashiwa ReysolGamba Osaka
Kyoto Sanga
Yokohama F. Marinos
Urawa
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
Kawasaki Frontale
Fagiano Okayama
Tokyo Verdy
Avispa Fukuoka
Shimizu S-pulseV-varen Nagasaki
Yokohama FC
Mito Hollyhock
JEF United Chiba
Shonan Bellmare
Albirex NiigataIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Gamba Osaka host V-varen Nagasaki on Saturday, 24 November 2018 at 05:00. The match is part of the J1 League 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Gamba Osaka vs V-varen Nagasaki
Gamba Osaka beat V-varen Nagasaki 2-1 in J1 League on November 24, 2018.
Goals: K. Onose (10'), R. iio (43'), K. Nakamura (52').
Gamba Osaka controlled possession (57%) and registered 18 shots to 18.
The match was played at Suita City Football Stadium in Suita.