Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gamba Osaka vs Urawa — J1 League 2024

Gamba Osaka
Gamba Osaka
Preview
10:30
Urawa
Urawa
8/7/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 1Panasonic Stadium Suita
Big match
45%
Gamba Osaka
model favours
45%26%29%

Urawa score first in only 7% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Gamba Osaka45%
×Draw26%
Urawa29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gamba Osaka
1.44
Urawa
1.10

Gamba Osaka creates 31% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 48 away

creates per match

Gamba Osaka
1.63
Urawa
1.04

allows per match

Gamba Osaka
1.17
Urawa
1.25

finishing

Gamba Osaka+0.00on par
Urawa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gamba Osaka ↓

Urawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Gamba Osaka or draw
71%
Gamba Osaka or Urawa
74%
Draw or Urawa
55%

Winning margin

Gamba Osaka wins by 2+
22%
Urawa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Gamba Osaka 1+ goals
76%
Gamba Osaka 2+ goals
42%
Gamba Osaka 3+ goals
18%
Urawa 1+ goals
67%
Urawa 2+ goals
30%
Urawa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Gamba Osaka (draw refunded)
61%
Urawa (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gamba Osaka at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.17 · 46 matches

Urawa away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gamba Osaka attack 1.63 + Urawa defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.44

Urawa attack 1.04 + Gamba Osaka defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gamba Osaka scores more
45%
level
26%
Urawa scores more
29%

Gamba Osaka at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gamba Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Gamba Osaka score first in only 25% of matches
  • Gamba Osaka win just 27% against the top half (vs 53% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Gamba Osaka
Defensively solid
Urawa
Defensively solid
53%PossessionBiggest gap57%
79%Pass accuracy83%
12.8Shots13.5
1.29xG1.28
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Gamba OsakaUrawa

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

3
Gamba Osaka
0
Draws
2
Urawa
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 20%
1–01–02–40–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Osaka
WLWDW
Urawa
LDLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gamba Osaka vs Urawa — Match Preview

Gamba Osaka face Urawa on August 7, 2026 in this J1 League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Gamba Osaka host Urawa at Panasonic Stadium Suita.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.