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Gamba Osaka vs Jubilo Iwata — J1 League 2018

Gamba Osaka
Gamba Osaka
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Jubilo Iwata
Jubilo Iwata
3/16/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 4Panasonic Stadium Suita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Gamba Osaka48%
×Draw26%
Jubilo Iwata26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gamba Osaka
1.48
Jubilo Iwata
1.01

Gamba Osaka creates 47% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 70 away

creates per match

Gamba Osaka
1.36
Jubilo Iwata
0.83

allows per match

Gamba Osaka
1.19
Jubilo Iwata
1.60

finishing

Gamba Osaka+0.00on par
Jubilo Iwata+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gamba Osaka ↓

Jubilo Iwata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Gamba Osaka or draw
74%
Gamba Osaka or Jubilo Iwata
74%
Draw or Jubilo Iwata
52%

Winning margin

Gamba Osaka wins by 2+
24%
Jubilo Iwata wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gamba Osaka 1+ goals
77%
Gamba Osaka 2+ goals
43%
Gamba Osaka 3+ goals
19%
Jubilo Iwata 1+ goals
64%
Jubilo Iwata 2+ goals
27%
Jubilo Iwata 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gamba Osaka (draw refunded)
65%
Jubilo Iwata (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gamba Osaka at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.19 · 149 matches

Jubilo Iwata away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.60 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gamba Osaka attack 1.36 + Jubilo Iwata defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.48

Jubilo Iwata attack 0.83 + Gamba Osaka defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gamba Osaka scores more
48%
level
26%
Jubilo Iwata scores more
26%

Gamba Osaka at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gamba Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gamba Osaka vs Jubilo Iwata

Gamba Osaka beat Jubilo Iwata 2-1 in J1 League on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Panasonic Stadium Suita in Suita.