Gamba Osaka 1–1 Jubilo Iwata: Result & Stats

Gamba Osaka

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Jubilo Iwata

8/18/2019

J1 League · Round 23Suita City Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Gamba Osaka47%

×Draw26%

Jubilo Iwata26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gamba OsakaExpected goals in this matchJubilo Iwata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.02

Gamba Osaka

1.47

Jubilo Iwata

1.02

Gamba Osaka creates 44% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 67 away

1.36

creates per match

0.85

1.19

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Gamba Osaka

1.36

Jubilo Iwata

0.85

allows per match

Gamba Osaka

1.19

Jubilo Iwata

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gamba Osaka+0.00on par

Jubilo Iwata+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gamba Osaka ↓

Jubilo Iwata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Gamba Osaka or draw

74%

Gamba Osaka or Jubilo Iwata

74%

Draw or Jubilo Iwata

53%

Winning margin

Gamba Osaka wins by 2+

24%

Jubilo Iwata wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Gamba Osaka 1+ goals

77%

Gamba Osaka 2+ goals

43%

Gamba Osaka 3+ goals

18%

Jubilo Iwata 1+ goals

64%

Jubilo Iwata 2+ goals

27%

Jubilo Iwata 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Gamba Osaka (draw refunded)

64%

Jubilo Iwata (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gamba Osaka at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.19 · 149 matches

Jubilo Iwata away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.58 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gamba Osaka attack 1.36 + Jubilo Iwata defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.47

Jubilo Iwata attack 0.85 + Gamba Osaka defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gamba Osaka scores more

47%

level

26%

Jubilo Iwata scores more

26%

Gamba Osaka at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gamba Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff