Gamba Osaka 2–1 Avispa Fukuoka: Result & Stats

Gamba Osaka

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Avispa Fukuoka

2/22/2025

J1 League · Round 2Panasonic Stadium Suita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Gamba Osaka41%

×Draw28%

Avispa Fukuoka31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gamba OsakaExpected goals in this matchAvispa Fukuoka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.03

Gamba Osaka

1.23

Avispa Fukuoka

1.03

Gamba Osaka creates 19% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 98 away

1.36

creates per match

0.88

1.19

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Gamba Osaka

1.36

Avispa Fukuoka

0.88

allows per match

Gamba Osaka

1.19

Avispa Fukuoka

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gamba Osaka+0.00on par

Avispa Fukuoka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gamba Osaka ↓

Avispa Fukuoka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Gamba Osaka or draw

69%

Gamba Osaka or Avispa Fukuoka

72%

Draw or Avispa Fukuoka

59%

Winning margin

Gamba Osaka wins by 2+

18%

Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Gamba Osaka 1+ goals

71%

Gamba Osaka 2+ goals

35%

Gamba Osaka 3+ goals

13%

Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals

64%

Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals

28%

Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Gamba Osaka (draw refunded)

57%

Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gamba Osaka at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.19 · 149 matches

Avispa Fukuoka away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.10 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gamba Osaka attack 1.36 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.23

Avispa Fukuoka attack 0.88 + Gamba Osaka defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gamba Osaka scores more

41%

level

28%

Avispa Fukuoka scores more

31%

Gamba Osaka at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gamba Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff