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Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka — J1 League 2018

Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gamba Osaka
Gamba Osaka
11/30/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 37Best Denki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Avispa Fukuoka40%
×Draw28%
Gamba Osaka32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avispa Fukuoka
1.25
Gamba Osaka
1.10

Avispa Fukuoka creates 14% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 147 away

creates per match

Avispa Fukuoka
1.03
Gamba Osaka
1.12

allows per match

Avispa Fukuoka
1.09
Gamba Osaka
1.48

finishing

Avispa Fukuoka+0.00on par
Gamba Osaka+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avispa Fukuoka ↓

Gamba Osaka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Avispa Fukuoka or draw
68%
Avispa Fukuoka or Gamba Osaka
72%
Draw or Gamba Osaka
60%

Winning margin

Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+
17%
Gamba Osaka wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals
71%
Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals
36%
Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals
13%
Gamba Osaka 1+ goals
67%
Gamba Osaka 2+ goals
30%
Gamba Osaka 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)
55%
Gamba Osaka (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avispa Fukuoka at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.09 · 96 matches

Gamba Osaka away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.48 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avispa Fukuoka attack 1.03 + Gamba Osaka defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.25

Gamba Osaka attack 1.12 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Avispa Fukuoka scores more
40%
level
28%
Gamba Osaka scores more
32%

Avispa Fukuoka at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Avispa Fukuoka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka

Avispa Fukuoka beat Gamba Osaka 1-0 in J1 League on November 30, 2025.

The match was played at Best Denki Stadium in Fukuoka.