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Galway United W vs Shamrock Rovers W — All-Island Cup - Women 2026

Galway United W
Galway United Wadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Shamrock Rovers W
Shamrock Rovers W
S. Lawless 64' (OG)
C. Bergin 32', 2'
J. Ralph 85'
7/5/2025All-Island Cup - WomenAll-Island Cup - Women · Quarter-Finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Galway United W57%
×Draw21%
Shamrock Rovers W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galway United W
2.13
Shamrock Rovers W
1.27

Galway United W creates 68% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

Galway United W
2.27
Shamrock Rovers W
2.00

allows per match

Galway United W
0.55
Shamrock Rovers W
2.00

finishing

Galway United W+0.00on par
Shamrock Rovers W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galway United W ↓

Shamrock Rovers W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Galway United W or draw
78%
Galway United W or Shamrock Rovers W
79%
Draw or Shamrock Rovers W
43%

Winning margin

Galway United W wins by 2+
35%
Shamrock Rovers W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Galway United W 1+ goals
88%
Galway United W 2+ goals
63%
Galway United W 3+ goals
35%
Shamrock Rovers W 1+ goals
72%
Shamrock Rovers W 2+ goals
36%
Shamrock Rovers W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Galway United W (draw refunded)
72%
Shamrock Rovers W (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galway United W at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

Shamrock Rovers W away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galway United W attack 2.27 + Shamrock Rovers W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Shamrock Rovers W attack 2.00 + Galway United W defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Galway United W scores more
57%
level
21%
Shamrock Rovers W scores more
22%

Galway United W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Galway United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
C. Bergin
32'
C. Bergin
64'
S. LawlessOwn goal
85'
J. Ralph

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Galway United W vs Shamrock Rovers W

Galway United W beat Shamrock Rovers W 3-1 in All-Island Cup - Women on July 5, 2025.

Goals: C. Bergin (2', 32'), S. Lawless (64' o.g.), J. Ralph (85').