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Galvez vs Atlético Acreano — League #520 2026

Galvez
Galvez
FT
0 – 0
Atlético Acreano
Atlético Acreano
9/2/2021League #520League #520 · 1st Phase - 4Arena Acreana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Galvez30%
×Draw31%
Atlético Acreano39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galvez
0.90
Atlético Acreano
1.07

Atlético Acreano creates 19% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 11 away

creates per match

Galvez
1.34
Atlético Acreano
1.00

allows per match

Galvez
1.14
Atlético Acreano
0.45

finishing

Galvez+0.00on par
Atlético Acreano+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galvez ↓

Atlético Acreano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Galvez or draw
61%
Galvez or Atlético Acreano
69%
Draw or Atlético Acreano
70%

Winning margin

Galvez wins by 2+
10%
Atlético Acreano wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Galvez 1+ goals
59%
Galvez 2+ goals
23%
Galvez 3+ goals
6%
Atlético Acreano 1+ goals
66%
Atlético Acreano 2+ goals
29%
Atlético Acreano 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Galvez (draw refunded)
44%
Atlético Acreano (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galvez at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.14 · 29 matches

Atlético Acreano away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galvez attack 1.34 + Atlético Acreano defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.90

Atlético Acreano attack 1.00 + Galvez defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Galvez scores more
30%
level
31%
Atlético Acreano scores more
39%

Atlético Acreano at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atlético Acreano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'
Marcelo Pano
65'
Neto
89'
Joao Marcus
89'
Joao Marcus

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Galvez vs Atlético Acreano

Galvez and Atlético Acreano drew 0-0 in League #520 on September 2, 2021.

The match was played at Arena Acreana in Rio Branco, Acre.