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Atlético Acreano vs Galvez — League #520 2026

Atlético Acreano
Atlético Acreano
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Galvez
Galvez
T. Nascimento 90+5'
Hiago 61'
4/30/2023League #520League #520 · 2nd Phase - 2Estádio Antônio Aquino Lopes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Atlético Acreano25%
×Draw24%
Galvez51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Acreano
1.11
Galvez
1.71

Galvez creates 54% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 31 away

creates per match

Atlético Acreano
1.23
Galvez
1.87

allows per match

Atlético Acreano
1.54
Galvez
1.00

finishing

Atlético Acreano+0.00on par
Galvez+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Acreano ↓

Galvez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Atlético Acreano or draw
49%
Atlético Acreano or Galvez
76%
Draw or Galvez
75%

Winning margin

Atlético Acreano wins by 2+
9%
Galvez wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Atlético Acreano 1+ goals
67%
Atlético Acreano 2+ goals
30%
Atlético Acreano 3+ goals
10%
Galvez 1+ goals
82%
Galvez 2+ goals
51%
Galvez 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Atlético Acreano (draw refunded)
32%
Galvez (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Acreano at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Galvez away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.00 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Acreano attack 1.23 + Galvez defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Galvez attack 1.87 + Atlético Acreano defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Atlético Acreano scores more
25%
level
24%
Galvez scores more
51%

Galvez at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Galvez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'
Hiago
90+5'
T. Nascimento

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Acreano vs Galvez

Galvez beat Atlético Acreano 2-0 in League #520 on April 30, 2023.

Goals: Hiago (61'), T. Nascimento (90+5').

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Aquino Lopes in Rio Branco, Acre.