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Galaxy vs African Stars — CAF Champions League 2019

Galaxy
Galaxy
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
African Stars
African Stars
8/24/2024CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundBotswana National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Galaxy48%
×Draw34%
African Stars19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galaxy
1.05
African Stars
0.54

Galaxy creates 94% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 4 away

creates per match

Galaxy
0.86
African Stars
0.00

allows per match

Galaxy
1.07
African Stars
1.25

finishing

Galaxy+0.00on par
African Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galaxy ↓

African Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Galaxy or draw
81%
Galaxy or African Stars
66%
Draw or African Stars
52%

Winning margin

Galaxy wins by 2+
19%
African Stars wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Galaxy 1+ goals
65%
Galaxy 2+ goals
28%
Galaxy 3+ goals
9%
African Stars 1+ goals
42%
African Stars 2+ goals
10%
African Stars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Galaxy (draw refunded)
72%
African Stars (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galaxy at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

African Stars away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galaxy attack 0.86 + African Stars defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.05

African Stars attack 0.00 + Galaxy defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Galaxy scores more
48%
level
34%
African Stars scores more
19%

Galaxy at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Galaxy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Galaxy vs African Stars

Galaxy beat African Stars 1-0 in CAF Champions League on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Botswana National Stadium in Gaborone.