African Stars 1–0 Galaxy: Result & Stats

African Stars

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Galaxy

8/17/2024

CAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundBotswana National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

African Stars61%

×Draw22%

Galaxy17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

African StarsExpected goals in this matchGalaxy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.85

African Stars

1.85

Galaxy

0.85

African Stars creates 118% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 14 away

1.50

creates per match

0.71

1.00

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

African Stars

1.50

Galaxy

0.71

allows per match

African Stars

1.00

Galaxy

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

African Stars+0.00on par

Galaxy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

African Stars ↓

Galaxy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

African Stars or draw

83%

African Stars or Galaxy

78%

Draw or Galaxy

39%

Winning margin

African Stars wins by 2+

36%

Galaxy wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

African Stars 1+ goals

84%

African Stars 2+ goals

55%

African Stars 3+ goals

28%

Galaxy 1+ goals

57%

Galaxy 2+ goals

21%

Galaxy 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

African Stars (draw refunded)

78%

Galaxy (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

African Stars at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Galaxy away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

African Stars attack 1.50 + Galaxy defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.85

Galaxy attack 0.71 + African Stars defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

African Stars scores more

61%

level

22%

Galaxy scores more

17%

African Stars at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "African Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff