Galatasaray 3–2 Samsunspor: Result & Stats

Galatasaray

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Samsunspor

V. Osimhen 90', 29'

L. Sane 8'

E. Kilinc 88'

A. Musaba 56'

12/5/2025

League #203 · Round 15Rams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Galatasaray54%

×Draw23%

Samsunspor23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GalatasarayExpected goals in this matchSamsunspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.08

Galatasaray

1.79

Samsunspor

1.08

Galatasaray creates 66% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 10 away

2.25

creates per match

1.23

0.93

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Galatasaray

2.25

Samsunspor

1.23

allows per match

Galatasaray

0.93

Samsunspor

1.33

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Galatasaray+0.29scores more

Samsunspor+0.07on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galatasaray ↓

Samsunspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Galatasaray or draw

77%

Galatasaray or Samsunspor

77%

Draw or Samsunspor

46%

Winning margin

Galatasaray wins by 2+

30%

Samsunspor wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Galatasaray 1+ goals

83%

Galatasaray 2+ goals

53%

Galatasaray 3+ goals

26%

Samsunspor 1+ goals

66%

Samsunspor 2+ goals

29%

Samsunspor 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Galatasaray (draw refunded)

70%

Samsunspor (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galatasaray at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.93 · 26 matches

Samsunspor away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.33 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galatasaray attack 2.25 + Samsunspor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.79

Samsunspor attack 1.23 + Galatasaray defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Galatasaray scores more

54%

level

23%

Samsunspor scores more

23%

Galatasaray at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

E. Kilinc

Samsunspor · M

9.0

Match Events

8'

29'

46'

46'

56'

68'

Y. Akgun← I. Gundogan

81'

Marius← L. Tomasson

83'

Rick Van Drongelen

84'

B. Kutlu← Gabriel Sara

87'

Berkan Kutlu

88'

E. Kilinc

90+8'

Emre Kılınç

90+1'

M. Icardi←

90+1'

Y. E. Cift← C. Ndiaye

90'

V. Osimhen↳ Y. Akgun

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GalatasaraySamsunspor

Overview

57%Possession43%

13Total Shots13

1.32Expected Goals (xG)1.36

1Corners3

7Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots13

6On Target4

4Off Target6

3Blocked3

7Inside Box7

6Outside Box6

Passing

57%Possession43%

516Total Passes375

454Accurate Passes310

88%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

-0.44Goals Prevented-0.44

Discipline

7Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Galatasaray vs Samsunspor

Galatasaray beat Samsunspor 3-2 in League #203 on December 5, 2025.

Goals: L. Sane (8'), V. Osimhen (29', 90'), A. Musaba (56'), E. Kilinc (88').

Galatasaray controlled possession (57%) and registered 13 shots to 13.

The match was played at Rams Park in Istanbul.

Galatasaray vs Samsunspor — League #203 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Galatasaray vs Samsunspor