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Galatasaray vs Samsunspor — League #203 2026

Galatasaray
Galatasaray
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Samsunspor
Samsunspor
M. Batshuayi 85'
V. Osimhen 55', 3'
Y. Bennasser 90+3' (pen)
O. Ntcham 50' (pen)
11/10/2024League #203League #203 · Round 12RAMS Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Galatasaray54%
×Draw23%
Samsunspor23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galatasaray
1.79
Samsunspor
1.08

Galatasaray creates 66% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 10 away

creates per match

Galatasaray
2.25
Samsunspor
1.23

allows per match

Galatasaray
0.93
Samsunspor
1.33

finishing

Galatasaray+0.29scores more
Samsunspor+0.07on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galatasaray ↓

Samsunspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Galatasaray or draw
77%
Galatasaray or Samsunspor
77%
Draw or Samsunspor
46%

Winning margin

Galatasaray wins by 2+
30%
Samsunspor wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Galatasaray 1+ goals
83%
Galatasaray 2+ goals
53%
Galatasaray 3+ goals
26%
Samsunspor 1+ goals
66%
Samsunspor 2+ goals
29%
Samsunspor 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Galatasaray (draw refunded)
70%
Samsunspor (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galatasaray at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.93 · 26 matches

Samsunspor away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.33 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galatasaray attack 2.25 + Samsunspor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.79

Samsunspor attack 1.23 + Galatasaray defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Galatasaray scores more
54%
level
23%
Samsunspor scores more
23%

Galatasaray at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

45
V. OsimhenGalatasarayGalatasaray · F
9.2

Match Events

3'
V. Osimhen↳ L. Torreira
30'
Youssef Aït Bennasser
34'
Victor Osimhen
46'
V. Nelsson← I. Jakobs
49'
Fernando Muslera
50'
O. NtchamPenalty
55'
Emre Kılınç
55'
V. Osimhen
65'
G. Laura← E. Kılınç
65'
K. Schindler← L. Dimata
70'
Davinson Sánchez
75'
B. Kutlu← B. Yılmaz
75'
M. Batshuayi← D. Mertens
79'
A. Muja← Z. Yavru
80'
S. Aydoğdu← C. Holse
82'
H. Ziyech← V. Osimhen
85'
M. Batshuayi↳ H. Ziyech
88'
E. Jelert← Y. Akgün
89'
F. Tait← O. Ntcham
90+7'
Arbnor Muja
90+5'
Flavien Tait
90'
Soner AydoğduGoal confirmed
90+3'
Y. BennasserPenalty

Possession

59%Galatasaray

Shots

19Galatasaray

Pass accuracy

52%Galatasaray

Statistics

GalatasaraySamsunspor
Overview
59%Possession41%
19Total Shots10
1.84Expected Goals (xG)1.39
7Corners3
13Fouls13
Shots
19Total Shots10
7On Target5
10Off Target4
2Blocked1
13Inside Box8
6Outside Box2
Passing
59%Possession41%
390Total Passes277
313Accurate Passes203
80%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
-0.86Goals Prevented-0.86
Discipline
13Fouls13
3Yellow Cards4
1Offsides3

League #203: Galatasaray 3–2 Samsunspor

Galatasaray beat Samsunspor 3-2 in League #203 on November 10, 2024.

Goals: V. Osimhen (3', 55'), O. Ntcham (50' pen), M. Batshuayi (85'), Y. Bennasser (90+3' pen).

Galatasaray controlled possession (59%) and registered 19 shots to 10.

The match was played at RAMS Park in İstanbul.