Galatasaray 3–0 Fatih Karagümrük: Result & Stats

Galatasaray

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fatih Karagümrük

M. Icardi 87'

F. Kurucuk 74' (OG)

B. A. Yilmaz 10'

8/15/2025

League #203 · Round 2Rams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Galatasaray69%

×Draw18%

Fatih Karagümrük13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GalatasarayExpected goals in this matchFatih Karagümrük

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.36

0.94

Galatasaray

2.36

Fatih Karagümrük

0.94

Galatasaray creates 151% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 11 away

2.45

creates per match

1.00

0.87

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Galatasaray

2.45

Fatih Karagümrük

1.00

allows per match

Galatasaray

0.87

Fatih Karagümrük

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Galatasaray+0.00on par

Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galatasaray ↓

Fatih Karagümrük →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Galatasaray or draw

87%

Galatasaray or Fatih Karagümrük

82%

Draw or Fatih Karagümrük

31%

Winning margin

Galatasaray wins by 2+

46%

Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Galatasaray 1+ goals

90%

Galatasaray 2+ goals

68%

Galatasaray 3+ goals

41%

Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals

61%

Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals

24%

Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Galatasaray (draw refunded)

84%

Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galatasaray at home — creates 2.45, concedes 0.87 · 31 matches

Fatih Karagümrük away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galatasaray attack 2.45 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.36

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.00 + Galatasaray defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Galatasaray scores more

69%

level

18%

Fatih Karagümrük scores more

13%

Galatasaray at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Gabriel Sara

Galatasaray · M

8.6

Match Events

10'

B. A. Yilmaz

22'

Marius Tresor DohCard upgrade

23'

Marius Tresor Doh

61'

V. Osimhen← M. Lemina

63'

T. Kalpakli← Serginho

63'

O. Gumus← A. Sivri

74'

Jure Balkovec

74'

F. KurucukOwn goal

75'

I. Jakobs← E. Elmali

75'

N. Zaniolo← Y. Akgun

81'

M. Icardi← B. A. Yilmaz

81'

K. Ayhan← D. Sanchez

82'

B. Kalayci← B. Ozcan

82'

A. Gray← T. Cukur

87'

M. Icardi↳ L. Torreira

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GalatasarayFatih

Overview

72%Possession28%

28Total Shots6

3.20Expected Goals (xG)0.72

10Corners3

11Fouls12

Shots

28Total Shots6

8On Target2

14Off Target3

6Blocked1

18Inside Box2

10Outside Box4

Passing

72%Possession28%

588Total Passes225

530Accurate Passes160

90%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

-1.10Goals Prevented-1.10

Discipline

11Fouls12

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

1Offsides3