Galatasaray 1–0 Fatih Karagümrük: Result & Stats

Galatasaray

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fatih Karagümrük

12/20/2023

League #203 · Round 17Rams Global Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Galatasaray71%

×Draw18%

Fatih Karagümrük11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GalatasarayExpected goals in this matchFatih Karagümrük

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

0.70

Galatasaray

2.16

Fatih Karagümrük

0.70

Galatasaray creates 209% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 6 away

2.25

creates per match

0.47

0.93

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Galatasaray

2.25

Fatih Karagümrük

0.47

allows per match

Galatasaray

0.93

Fatih Karagümrük

2.07

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Galatasaray+0.29scores more

Fatih Karagümrük+0.20scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galatasaray ↓

Fatih Karagümrük →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Galatasaray or draw

89%

Galatasaray or Fatih Karagümrük

82%

Draw or Fatih Karagümrük

29%

Winning margin

Galatasaray wins by 2+

46%

Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Galatasaray 1+ goals

88%

Galatasaray 2+ goals

63%

Galatasaray 3+ goals

36%

Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals

50%

Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals

16%

Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Galatasaray (draw refunded)

87%

Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galatasaray at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.93 · 26 matches

Fatih Karagümrük away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.07 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galatasaray attack 2.25 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.16

Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.47 + Galatasaray defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Galatasaray scores more

71%

level

18%

Fatih Karagümrük scores more

11%

Galatasaray at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff