Galatasaray 3–1 Alanyaspor: Result & Stats

Galatasaray

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Alanyaspor

2/12/2020

Türkiye Kupası · Quarter-finalsTürk Telekom Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Galatasaray42%

×Draw23%

Alanyaspor35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GalatasarayExpected goals in this matchAlanyaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.51

Galatasaray

1.67

Alanyaspor

1.51

Galatasaray creates 11% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 17 away

1.86

creates per match

1.88

1.14

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Galatasaray

1.86

Alanyaspor

1.88

allows per match

Galatasaray

1.14

Alanyaspor

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Galatasaray+0.00on par

Alanyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galatasaray ↓

Alanyaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Galatasaray or draw

65%

Galatasaray or Alanyaspor

77%

Draw or Alanyaspor

58%

Winning margin

Galatasaray wins by 2+

21%

Alanyaspor wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Galatasaray 1+ goals

81%

Galatasaray 2+ goals

50%

Galatasaray 3+ goals

23%

Alanyaspor 1+ goals

78%

Alanyaspor 2+ goals

44%

Alanyaspor 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Galatasaray (draw refunded)

54%

Alanyaspor (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galatasaray at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Alanyaspor away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galatasaray attack 1.86 + Alanyaspor defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.67

Alanyaspor attack 1.88 + Galatasaray defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Galatasaray scores more

42%

level

23%

Alanyaspor scores more

35%

Galatasaray at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff