Alanyaspor 0–1 Galatasaray: Result & Stats

Alanyaspor

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Galatasaray

M. Icardi 23'

9/26/2025

League #203 · Round 7GAİN Park Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Alanyaspor29%

×Draw28%

Galatasaray43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlanyasporExpected goals in this matchGalatasaray

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.30

Alanyaspor

1.03

Galatasaray

1.30

Galatasaray creates 26% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 30 away

1.14

creates per match

1.90

0.71

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Alanyaspor

1.14

Galatasaray

1.90

allows per match

Alanyaspor

0.71

Galatasaray

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alanyaspor+0.00on par

Galatasaray+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alanyaspor ↓

Galatasaray →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Alanyaspor or draw

57%

Alanyaspor or Galatasaray

72%

Draw or Galatasaray

71%

Winning margin

Alanyaspor wins by 2+

11%

Galatasaray wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Alanyaspor 1+ goals

64%

Alanyaspor 2+ goals

28%

Alanyaspor 3+ goals

9%

Galatasaray 1+ goals

73%

Galatasaray 2+ goals

37%

Galatasaray 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Alanyaspor (draw refunded)

41%

Galatasaray (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alanyaspor at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Galatasaray away — creates 1.90, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alanyaspor attack 1.14 + Galatasaray defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.03

Galatasaray attack 1.90 + Alanyaspor defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Alanyaspor scores more

29%

level

28%

Galatasaray scores more

43%

Galatasaray at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

U. Cakir

Galatasaray · G

9.7

Match Events

23'

M. Icardi↳ W. Singo

32'

Gaius Makouta

40'

Fidan Aliti

46'

M. Lemina← L. Torreira

58'

S. Mounie← Hwang Ui-Jo

62'

Davinson Sánchez

63'

I. Jakobs← A. Bardakci

63'

I. Gundogan← Gabriel Sara

71'

I. Hagi← I. Kaya

71'

Ruan← F. Hadergjonaj

77'

M. Baltaci← L. Sane

80'

N. Janvier← G. Makouta

85'

V. Osimhen← B. A. Yilmaz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlanyasporGalatasaray

Overview

46%Possession54%

22Total Shots7

2.11Expected Goals (xG)1.67

6Corners0

14Fouls16

Shots

22Total Shots7

8On Target2

7Off Target4

7Blocked1

17Inside Box3

5Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

454Total Passes557

372Accurate Passes487

82%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

1Saves8

2.58Goals Prevented2.58

Discipline

14Fouls16

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides4