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Alanyaspor vs Galatasaray — League #203 2026

Alanyaspor
Alanyaspor
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Galatasaray
Galatasaray
T. Vilhena 23'
V. Osimhen 62'
F. Aliti 51' (OG)
3/9/2025League #203League #203 · Round 27GAIN Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Alanyaspor29%
×Draw28%
Galatasaray43%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alanyaspor
1.03
Galatasaray
1.30

Galatasaray creates 26% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 30 away

creates per match

Alanyaspor
1.14
Galatasaray
1.90

allows per match

Alanyaspor
0.71
Galatasaray
0.93

finishing

Alanyaspor+0.00on par
Galatasaray+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alanyaspor ↓

Galatasaray →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Alanyaspor or draw
57%
Alanyaspor or Galatasaray
72%
Draw or Galatasaray
71%

Winning margin

Alanyaspor wins by 2+
11%
Galatasaray wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Alanyaspor 1+ goals
64%
Alanyaspor 2+ goals
28%
Alanyaspor 3+ goals
9%
Galatasaray 1+ goals
73%
Galatasaray 2+ goals
37%
Galatasaray 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Alanyaspor (draw refunded)
41%
Galatasaray (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alanyaspor at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Galatasaray away — creates 1.90, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alanyaspor attack 1.14 + Galatasaray defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.03

Galatasaray attack 1.90 + Alanyaspor defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Alanyaspor scores more
29%
level
28%
Galatasaray scores more
43%

Galatasaray at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
Gabriel SaraGalatasarayGalatasaray · M
7.9

Match Events

-5'
Günay Güvenç
23'
T. Vilhena↳ F. Hadergjonaj
26'
Barış Alper Yılmaz
45+1'
Mario Lemina
46'
Y. Akgün← M. Lemina
51'
F. AlitiOwn goal
52'
Eren Elmalı
57'
Fernando Muslera
62'
V. Osimhen↳ B. Yılmaz
72'
Hwang Ui-Jo← S. Córdova
72'
R. Sallai← E. Elmalı
74'
Fidan Aliti
74'
Álvaro Morata
79'
K. Ayhan← Álvaro Morata
82'
Nuno Lima
84'
A. Usluoğlu← A. Šporar
84'
N. Janvier← F. Aksoy
86'
Roland Sallai
90+3'
Ahmed Kutucu
90'
K. Demirbay← Gabriel Sara
90'
A. Kutucu← V. Osimhen

Possession

35%Alanyaspor

Shots

10Alanyaspor

Pass accuracy

46%Alanyaspor

Statistics

AlanyasporGalatasaray
Overview
35%Possession65%
10Total Shots18
0.76Expected Goals (xG)1.94
3Corners4
12Fouls15
Shots
10Total Shots18
2On Target6
7Off Target8
1Blocked4
7Inside Box11
3Outside Box7
Passing
35%Possession65%
283Total Passes555
213Accurate Passes483
75%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
-0.78Goals Prevented-0.78
Discipline
12Fouls15
2Yellow Cards7
0Red Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Alanyaspor vs Galatasaray

Galatasaray beat Alanyaspor 2-1 in League #203 on March 9, 2025.

Goals: T. Vilhena (23'), F. Aliti (51' o.g.), V. Osimhen (62').

Galatasaray controlled possession (65%) and registered 18 shots to 10.

The match was played at GAIN Park Stadium in Antalya.