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Galata vs Çankaya FK — League #552 2026

Galata
Galata
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Çankaya FK
Çankaya FK
H. Ozturk 79'
T. Aksu-Berk 53'
I. Kurt 32'
B. Baskaya 26'
4/18/2026League #552League #552 · Group 1 - 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Galata38%
×Draw26%
Çankaya FK35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galata
1.33
Çankaya FK
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 19 away

creates per match

Galata
1.33
Çankaya FK
1.21

allows per match

Galata
1.33
Çankaya FK
1.32

finishing

Galata+0.00on par
Çankaya FK+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galata ↓

Çankaya FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Galata or draw
65%
Galata or Çankaya FK
74%
Draw or Çankaya FK
62%

Winning margin

Galata wins by 2+
17%
Çankaya FK wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Galata 1+ goals
74%
Galata 2+ goals
38%
Galata 3+ goals
15%
Çankaya FK 1+ goals
72%
Çankaya FK 2+ goals
36%
Çankaya FK 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Galata (draw refunded)
52%
Çankaya FK (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galata at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Çankaya FK away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galata attack 1.33 + Çankaya FK defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Çankaya FK attack 1.21 + Galata defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Galata scores more
38%
level
26%
Çankaya FK scores more
35%

Galata at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Galata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
B. Baskaya↳ T. Aksu-Berk
32'
I. Kurt↳ T. Akpinar
53'
T. Aksu-Berk↳ T. Akpinar
79'
H. Ozturk

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Galata vs Çankaya FK

Çankaya FK beat Galata 3-1 in League #552 on April 18, 2026.

Goals: B. Baskaya (26'), I. Kurt (32'), T. Aksu-Berk (53'), H. Ozturk (79').