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Çankaya FK vs Galata — League #552 2026

Çankaya FK
Çankaya FK
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Galata
Galata
B. Kenctemur 81'
Y. Ayan 45+3'
12/20/2025League #552League #552 · Group 1 - 15Osmanlı Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Çankaya FK26%
×Draw29%
Galata45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Çankaya FK
0.88
Galata
1.27

Galata creates 44% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 3 away

creates per match

Çankaya FK
1.42
Galata
1.00

allows per match

Çankaya FK
1.53
Galata
0.33

finishing

Çankaya FK+0.00on par
Galata+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Çankaya FK ↓

Galata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Çankaya FK or draw
55%
Çankaya FK or Galata
71%
Draw or Galata
74%

Winning margin

Çankaya FK wins by 2+
9%
Galata wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Çankaya FK 1+ goals
59%
Çankaya FK 2+ goals
22%
Çankaya FK 3+ goals
6%
Galata 1+ goals
72%
Galata 2+ goals
36%
Galata 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Çankaya FK (draw refunded)
36%
Galata (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Çankaya FK at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Galata away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Çankaya FK attack 1.42 + Galata defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.88

Galata attack 1.00 + Çankaya FK defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Çankaya FK scores more
26%
level
29%
Galata scores more
45%

Galata at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Galata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+3'
Y. Ayan↳ B. Kenctemur
81'
B. Kenctemur

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Çankaya FK vs Galata

Galata beat Çankaya FK 2-0 in League #552 on December 20, 2025.

Goals: Y. Ayan (45+3'), B. Kenctemur (81').

The match was played at Osmanlı Stadı in Ankara.