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Galanta vs Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom — 3. liga - West 2020

Galanta
Galanta
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
3/2/20243. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 16Futbalový štadión FC Slovan Galanta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Galanta53%
×Draw25%
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galanta
1.57
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
0.91

Galanta creates 73% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 31 away

creates per match

Galanta
1.72
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
0.90

allows per match

Galanta
0.92
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
1.42

finishing

Galanta+0.00on par
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galanta ↓

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Galanta or draw
78%
Galanta or Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
75%
Draw or Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
47%

Winning margin

Galanta wins by 2+
28%
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Galanta 1+ goals
79%
Galanta 2+ goals
46%
Galanta 3+ goals
21%
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 1+ goals
60%
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 2+ goals
23%
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Galanta (draw refunded)
71%
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galanta at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.92 · 85 matches

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galanta attack 1.72 + Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.57

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom attack 0.90 + Galanta defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Galanta scores more
53%
level
25%
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom scores more
22%

Galanta at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Galanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Galanta 1–0 Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

Galanta beat Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 1-0 in 3. liga - West on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión FC Slovan Galanta in Galanta.