Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 1–0 Galanta

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Galanta

8/5/2023

3. liga - West · West - 1Futbalový štadión OFK Baník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom54%

×Draw24%

Galanta23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baník Lehota p.VtáčnikomExpected goals in this matchGalanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.03

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

1.73

Galanta

1.03

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom creates 68% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 85 away

1.97

creates per match

1.32

0.74

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

1.97

Galanta

1.32

allows per match

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

0.74

Galanta

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom+0.00on par

Galanta+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom ↓

Galanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom or draw

77%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom or Galanta

76%

Draw or Galanta

46%

Winning margin

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom wins by 2+

30%

Galanta wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 1+ goals

82%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 2+ goals

52%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 3+ goals

25%

Galanta 1+ goals

64%

Galanta 2+ goals

28%

Galanta 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom (draw refunded)

70%

Galanta (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.74 · 31 matches

Galanta away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.48 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom attack 1.97 + Galanta defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.73

Galanta attack 1.32 + Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom scores more

54%

level

24%

Galanta scores more

23%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff