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Gais vs IFK Norrkoping — Svenska Cupen 2019

Gais
Gais
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
IFK Norrkoping
IFK Norrkoping
3/7/2026Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Gais39%
×Draw22%
IFK Norrkoping40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gais
1.85
IFK Norrkoping
1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 20 away

creates per match

Gais
2.36
IFK Norrkoping
2.85

allows per match

Gais
0.91
IFK Norrkoping
1.35

finishing

Gais+0.00on par
IFK Norrkoping+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gais ↓

IFK Norrkoping →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Gais or draw
60%
Gais or IFK Norrkoping
78%
Draw or IFK Norrkoping
61%

Winning margin

Gais wins by 2+
20%
IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Gais 1+ goals
84%
Gais 2+ goals
55%
Gais 3+ goals
28%
IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals
85%
IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals
56%
IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Gais (draw refunded)
49%
IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gais at home — creates 2.36, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

IFK Norrkoping away — creates 2.85, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gais attack 2.36 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.85

IFK Norrkoping attack 2.85 + Gais defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gais scores more
39%
level
22%
IFK Norrkoping scores more
40%

IFK Norrkoping at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "IFK Norrkoping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gais vs IFK Norrkoping

Gais beat IFK Norrkoping 5-1 in Svenska Cupen on March 7, 2026.