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Gais vs IFK Norrkoping — Allsvenskan 2018

Gais
Gais
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
IFK Norrkoping
IFK Norrkoping
10/4/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 26Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Gais48%
×Draw26%
IFK Norrkoping26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gais
1.53
IFK Norrkoping
1.06

Gais creates 44% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 121 away

creates per match

Gais
1.49
IFK Norrkoping
1.40

allows per match

Gais
0.73
IFK Norrkoping
1.57

finishing

Gais+0.00on par
IFK Norrkoping+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gais ↓

IFK Norrkoping →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Gais or draw
74%
Gais or IFK Norrkoping
74%
Draw or IFK Norrkoping
52%

Winning margin

Gais wins by 2+
24%
IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Gais 1+ goals
78%
Gais 2+ goals
45%
Gais 3+ goals
20%
IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals
65%
IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals
29%
IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gais (draw refunded)
65%
IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gais at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.73 · 37 matches

IFK Norrkoping away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.57 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gais attack 1.49 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.53

IFK Norrkoping attack 1.40 + Gais defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gais scores more
48%
level
26%
IFK Norrkoping scores more
26%

Gais at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Gais 2–1 IFK Norrkoping

Gais beat IFK Norrkoping 2-1 in Allsvenskan on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at Gamla Ullevi in Gothenburg.