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Gais vs Angelholms FF — Ettan - Södra 2019

Gais
Gais
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Angelholms FF
Angelholms FF
9/11/2022Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 22Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Gais64%
×Draw21%
Angelholms FF16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gais
2.02
Angelholms FF
0.88

Gais creates 130% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 70 away

creates per match

Gais
2.27
Angelholms FF
1.16

allows per match

Gais
0.60
Angelholms FF
1.76

finishing

Gais+0.00on par
Angelholms FF+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gais ↓

Angelholms FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Gais or draw
84%
Gais or Angelholms FF
79%
Draw or Angelholms FF
36%

Winning margin

Gais wins by 2+
39%
Angelholms FF wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Gais 1+ goals
87%
Gais 2+ goals
60%
Gais 3+ goals
33%
Angelholms FF 1+ goals
59%
Angelholms FF 2+ goals
22%
Angelholms FF 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Gais (draw refunded)
80%
Angelholms FF (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gais at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Angelholms FF away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.76 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gais attack 2.27 + Angelholms FF defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.02

Angelholms FF attack 1.16 + Gais defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Gais scores more
64%
level
21%
Angelholms FF scores more
16%

Gais at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Gais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gais vs Angelholms FF

Gais beat Angelholms FF 2-1 in Ettan - Södra on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Gamla Ullevi in Göteborg.