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Angelholms FF vs Gais — Ettan - Södra 2019

Angelholms FF
Angelholms FF
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Gais
Gais
4/30/2022Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 5Änglavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Angelholms FF24%
×Draw24%
Gais52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angelholms FF
1.04
Gais
1.66

Gais creates 60% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 15 away

creates per match

Angelholms FF
1.34
Gais
1.93

allows per match

Angelholms FF
1.39
Gais
0.73

finishing

Angelholms FF+0.00on par
Gais+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angelholms FF ↓

Gais →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Angelholms FF or draw
48%
Angelholms FF or Gais
76%
Draw or Gais
76%

Winning margin

Angelholms FF wins by 2+
9%
Gais wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Angelholms FF 1+ goals
65%
Angelholms FF 2+ goals
28%
Angelholms FF 3+ goals
9%
Gais 1+ goals
81%
Gais 2+ goals
49%
Gais 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Angelholms FF (draw refunded)
31%
Gais (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angelholms FF at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.39 · 70 matches

Gais away — creates 1.93, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angelholms FF attack 1.34 + Gais defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.04

Gais attack 1.93 + Angelholms FF defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Angelholms FF scores more
24%
level
24%
Gais scores more
52%

Gais at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Gais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Södra: Angelholms FF 3–1 Gais

Angelholms FF beat Gais 3-1 in Ettan - Södra on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Änglavallen in Ängelholm.