Gagra 2–0 Chikhura Sachkhere: Result & Stats

Gagra

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Chikhura Sachkhere

10/14/2021

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 29Zghvis Baza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Gagra75%

×Draw17%

Chikhura Sachkhere8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GagraExpected goals in this matchChikhura Sachkhere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

0.56

Gagra

2.20

Chikhura Sachkhere

0.56

Gagra creates 293% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 18 away

1.79

creates per match

0.44

0.67

allows per match

2.61

creates per match

Gagra

1.79

Chikhura Sachkhere

0.44

allows per match

Gagra

0.67

Chikhura Sachkhere

2.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gagra+0.00on par

Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gagra ↓

Chikhura Sachkhere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Gagra or draw

92%

Gagra or Chikhura Sachkhere

83%

Draw or Chikhura Sachkhere

25%

Winning margin

Gagra wins by 2+

50%

Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Gagra 1+ goals

89%

Gagra 2+ goals

64%

Gagra 3+ goals

37%

Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals

43%

Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals

11%

Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Gagra (draw refunded)

90%

Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gagra at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.67 · 42 matches

Chikhura Sachkhere away — creates 0.44, concedes 2.61 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gagra attack 1.79 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.20

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 0.44 + Gagra defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Gagra scores more

75%

level

17%

Chikhura Sachkhere scores more

8%

Gagra at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Gagra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff