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Chikhura Sachkhere vs Gagra — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Chikhura Sachkhere
Chikhura Sachkhere
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Gagra
Gagra
7/1/2021Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 20Tsentraluri Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Chikhura Sachkhere17%
×Draw20%
Gagra64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chikhura Sachkhere
1.01
Gagra
2.17

Gagra creates 115% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 42 away

creates per match

Chikhura Sachkhere
0.89
Gagra
1.50

allows per match

Chikhura Sachkhere
2.83
Gagra
1.14

finishing

Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par
Gagra+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chikhura Sachkhere ↓

Gagra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Chikhura Sachkhere or draw
36%
Chikhura Sachkhere or Gagra
80%
Draw or Gagra
83%

Winning margin

Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+
6%
Gagra wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals
64%
Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals
27%
Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals
8%
Gagra 1+ goals
89%
Gagra 2+ goals
64%
Gagra 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)
21%
Gagra (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chikhura Sachkhere at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.83 · 18 matches

Gagra away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.14 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 0.89 + Gagra defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01

Gagra attack 1.50 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Chikhura Sachkhere scores more
17%
level
20%
Gagra scores more
64%

Gagra at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Gagra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chikhura Sachkhere vs Gagra

Gagra beat Chikhura Sachkhere 4-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on July 1, 2021.

The match was played at Tsentraluri Stadioni in Ivantsminda.