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Gagauziya-Oguzsport vs Speranța Drochia — League #395 2026

Gagauziya-Oguzsport
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Speranța Drochia
Speranța Drochia
4/18/2025League #395League #395 · 2nd Phase - 6Stadion im. V.G. Mumzhieva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gagauziya-Oguzsport72%
×Draw15%
Speranța Drochia13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gagauziya-Oguzsport
3.00
Speranța Drochia
1.25

Gagauziya-Oguzsport creates 140% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Gagauziya-Oguzsport
2.00
Speranța Drochia
1.25

allows per match

Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.25
Speranța Drochia
4.00

finishing

Gagauziya-Oguzsport+0.00on par
Speranța Drochia+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gagauziya-Oguzsport ↓

Speranța Drochia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Gagauziya-Oguzsport or draw
87%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport or Speranța Drochia
85%
Draw or Speranța Drochia
28%

Winning margin

Gagauziya-Oguzsport wins by 2+
52%
Speranța Drochia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Gagauziya-Oguzsport 1+ goals
95%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport 2+ goals
79%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport 3+ goals
56%
Speranța Drochia 1+ goals
71%
Speranța Drochia 2+ goals
36%
Speranța Drochia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Gagauziya-Oguzsport (draw refunded)
84%
Speranța Drochia (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gagauziya-Oguzsport at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Speranța Drochia away — creates 1.25, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gagauziya-Oguzsport attack 2.00 + Speranța Drochia defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.00

Speranța Drochia attack 1.25 + Gagauziya-Oguzsport defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Gagauziya-Oguzsport scores more
72%
level
15%
Speranța Drochia scores more
13%

Gagauziya-Oguzsport at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Gagauziya-Oguzsport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #395: Gagauziya-Oguzsport 2–1 Speranța Drochia

Gagauziya-Oguzsport beat Speranța Drochia 2-1 in League #395 on April 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion im. V.G. Mumzhieva in Komrat.