Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gagauziya-Oguzsport vs Speranța Drochia — Super Liga 2026

Gagauziya-Oguzsport
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
FT
7 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Speranța Drochia
Speranța Drochia
E. Borovschi 82'
V. Cozma 80', 77'
S. Gheorghiev 74', 58'
V. Dobrioglo 52'
V. Gheorghita 35'
5/3/2024Super LigaSuper Liga · Promotion Group - 9Stadion im. V.G. Mumzhieva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Gagauziya-Oguzsport76%
×Draw14%
Speranța Drochia10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gagauziya-Oguzsport
2.88
Speranța Drochia
0.96

Gagauziya-Oguzsport creates 200% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Gagauziya-Oguzsport
2.33
Speranța Drochia
0.43

allows per match

Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.50
Speranța Drochia
3.43

finishing

Gagauziya-Oguzsport+0.00on par
Speranța Drochia+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gagauziya-Oguzsport ↓

Speranța Drochia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Gagauziya-Oguzsport or draw
90%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport or Speranța Drochia
86%
Draw or Speranța Drochia
24%

Winning margin

Gagauziya-Oguzsport wins by 2+
56%
Speranța Drochia wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Gagauziya-Oguzsport 1+ goals
94%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport 2+ goals
78%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport 3+ goals
54%
Speranța Drochia 1+ goals
62%
Speranța Drochia 2+ goals
25%
Speranța Drochia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Gagauziya-Oguzsport (draw refunded)
88%
Speranța Drochia (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gagauziya-Oguzsport at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Speranța Drochia away — creates 0.43, concedes 3.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gagauziya-Oguzsport attack 2.33 + Speranța Drochia defence 3.43 → ÷2 → 2.88

Speranța Drochia attack 0.43 + Gagauziya-Oguzsport defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Gagauziya-Oguzsport scores more
76%
level
14%
Speranța Drochia scores more
10%

Gagauziya-Oguzsport at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Gagauziya-Oguzsport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
V. Gheorghita
52'
V. Dobrioglo
58'
S. Gheorghiev
74'
S. Gheorghiev
77'
V. Cozma
80'
V. Cozma
82'
E. Borovschi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Gagauziya-Oguzsport 7–0 Speranța Drochia

Gagauziya-Oguzsport beat Speranța Drochia 7-0 in Super Liga on May 3, 2024.

Goals: V. Gheorghita (35'), V. Dobrioglo (52'), S. Gheorghiev (58', 74'), V. Cozma (77', 80'), E. Borovschi (82').

The match was played at Stadion im. V.G. Mumzhieva in Komrat.