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Gaddafi vs Busoga United — Premier League 2019

Gaddafi
Gaddafi
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Busoga United
Busoga United
I. Mweru 45'
10/24/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Gaddafi Barracks

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Gaddafi51%
×Draw27%
Busoga United23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gaddafi
1.47
Busoga United
0.88

Gaddafi creates 67% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 69 away

creates per match

Gaddafi
1.16
Busoga United
0.84

allows per match

Gaddafi
0.91
Busoga United
1.78

finishing

Gaddafi+0.00on par
Busoga United+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaddafi ↓

Busoga United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Gaddafi or draw
77%
Gaddafi or Busoga United
73%
Draw or Busoga United
49%

Winning margin

Gaddafi wins by 2+
26%
Busoga United wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gaddafi 1+ goals
77%
Gaddafi 2+ goals
43%
Gaddafi 3+ goals
18%
Busoga United 1+ goals
59%
Busoga United 2+ goals
22%
Busoga United 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Gaddafi (draw refunded)
69%
Busoga United (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaddafi at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.91 · 43 matches

Busoga United away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.78 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaddafi attack 1.16 + Busoga United defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.47

Busoga United attack 0.84 + Gaddafi defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Gaddafi scores more
51%
level
27%
Busoga United scores more
23%

Gaddafi at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Gaddafi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
S. Mulanda
9'
R. Mpata
18'
19'
B. Mugwa
45'
I. Mweru
46'
A. Kirya← A. Kirya
52'
S. Ssengendo← S. Ssengendo
55'
E. K. Kibbale
63'
H. Ssajjabbi← H. Ssajjabbi
63'
E. Ajo← E. Ajo
66'
J. Odongo← J. Odongo
66'
R. Bithum← R. Bithum
80'
J. Matata← J. Matata
87'
S. Mpoza← S. Mpoza
90+1'
I. Mweru
90+2'
A. Galandhi← A. Galandhi
90+7'
S. Mulanda

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Gaddafi 0–1 Busoga United

Busoga United beat Gaddafi 1-0 in Premier League on October 24, 2023.

Goals: I. Mweru (45').

The match was played at Gaddafi Barracks in Jinja.