Busoga United 1–1 Gaddafi: Result & Stats

Busoga United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Gaddafi

E. Ajo 39'

R. Bithum 29'

2/29/2024

Premier League · Round 19FUFA Technical Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Busoga United48%

×Draw27%

Gaddafi25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Busoga UnitedExpected goals in this matchGaddafi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.92

Busoga United

1.38

Gaddafi

0.92

Busoga United creates 50% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 44 away

0.94

creates per match

0.66

1.17

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Busoga United

0.94

Gaddafi

0.66

allows per match

Busoga United

1.17

Gaddafi

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Busoga United+0.00on par

Gaddafi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Busoga United ↓

Gaddafi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Busoga United or draw

75%

Busoga United or Gaddafi

73%

Draw or Gaddafi

52%

Winning margin

Busoga United wins by 2+

23%

Gaddafi wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Busoga United 1+ goals

75%

Busoga United 2+ goals

40%

Busoga United 3+ goals

16%

Gaddafi 1+ goals

60%

Gaddafi 2+ goals

23%

Gaddafi 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Busoga United (draw refunded)

65%

Gaddafi (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Busoga United at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.17 · 69 matches

Gaddafi away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.82 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Busoga United attack 0.94 + Gaddafi defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.38

Gaddafi attack 0.66 + Busoga United defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Busoga United scores more

48%

level

27%

Gaddafi scores more

25%

Busoga United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Busoga United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

R. Bithum

34'

L. Kambugu← L. Kambugu

37'

R. Bithum

39'

E. Ajo

59'

B. Buyala← B. Buyala

60'

M. Logono← M. Logono

60'

Dhafa← Dhafa

62'

S. O. Ngore← S. O. Ngore

73'

M. Logono

77'

I. Sserubiri

85'

J. Amiru Kaka← J. Amiru Kaka

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff