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Gaddafi vs BUL — Premier League 2019

Gaddafi
Gaddafi
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
BUL
BUL
1/3/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Gaddafi Barracks

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Gaddafi37%
×Draw29%
BUL33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gaddafi
1.12
BUL
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 100 away

creates per match

Gaddafi
1.16
BUL
1.17

allows per match

Gaddafi
0.91
BUL
1.08

finishing

Gaddafi+0.00on par
BUL+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaddafi ↓

BUL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Gaddafi or draw
67%
Gaddafi or BUL
71%
Draw or BUL
63%

Winning margin

Gaddafi wins by 2+
15%
BUL wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gaddafi 1+ goals
67%
Gaddafi 2+ goals
31%
Gaddafi 3+ goals
10%
BUL 1+ goals
65%
BUL 2+ goals
28%
BUL 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gaddafi (draw refunded)
53%
BUL (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaddafi at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.91 · 43 matches

BUL away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaddafi attack 1.16 + BUL defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.12

BUL attack 1.17 + Gaddafi defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Gaddafi scores more
37%
level
29%
BUL scores more
33%

Gaddafi at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Gaddafi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Gaddafi 2–1 BUL

Gaddafi beat BUL 2-1 in Premier League on January 3, 2024.

The match was played at Gaddafi Barracks in Jinja.