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BUL vs Gaddafi — Premier League 2019

BUL
BUL
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gaddafi
Gaddafi
5/11/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28FUFA Technical Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

BUL59%
×Draw25%
Gaddafi17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BUL
1.63
Gaddafi
0.74

BUL creates 120% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 44 away

creates per match

BUL
1.43
Gaddafi
0.66

allows per match

BUL
0.83
Gaddafi
1.82

finishing

BUL+0.00on par
Gaddafi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BUL ↓

Gaddafi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

BUL or draw
83%
BUL or Gaddafi
75%
Draw or Gaddafi
41%

Winning margin

BUL wins by 2+
32%
Gaddafi wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

BUL 1+ goals
80%
BUL 2+ goals
48%
BUL 3+ goals
22%
Gaddafi 1+ goals
52%
Gaddafi 2+ goals
17%
Gaddafi 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

BUL (draw refunded)
78%
Gaddafi (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BUL at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.83 · 99 matches

Gaddafi away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.82 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BUL attack 1.43 + Gaddafi defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.63

Gaddafi attack 0.66 + BUL defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

BUL scores more
59%
level
25%
Gaddafi scores more
17%

BUL at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "BUL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BUL vs Gaddafi

BUL beat Gaddafi 1-0 in Premier League on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at FUFA Technical Centre in Njeru.