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Gać Oława vs Carina Gubin — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Gać Oława
Gać Oława
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Carina Gubin
Carina Gubin
Unknown 90+6', 85'
3/19/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 20Stadion w Gaciu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Gać Oława29%
×Draw23%
Carina Gubin48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gać Oława
1.40
Carina Gubin
1.87

Carina Gubin creates 34% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 85 away

creates per match

Gać Oława
1.29
Carina Gubin
1.51

allows per match

Gać Oława
2.23
Carina Gubin
1.51

finishing

Gać Oława+0.00on par
Carina Gubin+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gać Oława ↓

Carina Gubin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Gać Oława or draw
52%
Gać Oława or Carina Gubin
77%
Draw or Carina Gubin
71%

Winning margin

Gać Oława wins by 2+
13%
Carina Gubin wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Gać Oława 1+ goals
75%
Gać Oława 2+ goals
41%
Gać Oława 3+ goals
17%
Carina Gubin 1+ goals
85%
Carina Gubin 2+ goals
56%
Carina Gubin 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Gać Oława (draw refunded)
37%
Carina Gubin (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gać Oława at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.23 · 35 matches

Carina Gubin away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.51 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gać Oława attack 1.29 + Carina Gubin defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.40

Carina Gubin attack 1.51 + Gać Oława defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gać Oława scores more
29%
level
23%
Carina Gubin scores more
48%

Carina Gubin at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Carina Gubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

85'
90+6'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gać Oława vs Carina Gubin

Carina Gubin beat Gać Oława 2-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on March 19, 2022.

Goals: ? (85', 90+6').

The match was played at Stadion w Gaciu in Gać.