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Carina Gubin vs Gać Oława — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Carina Gubin
Carina Gubin
FT
0 – 0
Gać Oława
Gać Oława
8/18/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 3Stadion Miejski Gubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Carina Gubin56%
×Draw22%
Gać Oława22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carina Gubin
1.97
Gać Oława
1.15

Carina Gubin creates 71% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 35 away

creates per match

Carina Gubin
1.38
Gać Oława
1.00

allows per match

Carina Gubin
1.29
Gać Oława
2.57

finishing

Carina Gubin+0.00on par
Gać Oława+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carina Gubin ↓

Gać Oława →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Carina Gubin or draw
78%
Carina Gubin or Gać Oława
78%
Draw or Gać Oława
44%

Winning margin

Carina Gubin wins by 2+
33%
Gać Oława wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Carina Gubin 1+ goals
86%
Carina Gubin 2+ goals
58%
Carina Gubin 3+ goals
31%
Gać Oława 1+ goals
68%
Gać Oława 2+ goals
32%
Gać Oława 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Carina Gubin (draw refunded)
72%
Gać Oława (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carina Gubin at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.29 · 84 matches

Gać Oława away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.57 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carina Gubin attack 1.38 + Gać Oława defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.97

Gać Oława attack 1.00 + Carina Gubin defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Carina Gubin scores more
56%
level
22%
Gać Oława scores more
22%

Carina Gubin at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Carina Gubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carina Gubin vs Gać Oława

Carina Gubin and Gać Oława drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Gubin in Gubin.