FYR Macedonia 0–1 Bulgaria: Result & Stats

FYR Macedonia

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bulgaria

K. Despodov 50'

9/26/2022

UEFA Nations League · League C - 6Toše Proeski Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

FYR Macedonia59%

×Draw25%

Bulgaria16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FYR MacedoniaExpected goals in this matchBulgaria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.66

FYR Macedonia

1.55

Bulgaria

0.66

FYR Macedonia creates 135% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.92

creates per match

0.64

0.67

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

FYR Macedonia

1.92

Bulgaria

0.64

allows per match

FYR Macedonia

0.67

Bulgaria

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FYR Macedonia+0.00on par

Bulgaria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FYR Macedonia ↓

Bulgaria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

FYR Macedonia or draw

84%

FYR Macedonia or Bulgaria

75%

Draw or Bulgaria

41%

Winning margin

FYR Macedonia wins by 2+

31%

Bulgaria wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

FYR Macedonia 1+ goals

79%

FYR Macedonia 2+ goals

46%

FYR Macedonia 3+ goals

20%

Bulgaria 1+ goals

48%

Bulgaria 2+ goals

14%

Bulgaria 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

FYR Macedonia (draw refunded)

79%

Bulgaria (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FYR Macedonia at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Bulgaria away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FYR Macedonia attack 1.92 + Bulgaria defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.55

Bulgaria attack 0.64 + FYR Macedonia defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

FYR Macedonia scores more

59%

level

25%

Bulgaria scores more

16%

FYR Macedonia at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "FYR Macedonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

V. Antov

Bulgaria · D

8.0

Match Events

2'

Marin Petkov

14'

Todor Todoroski

20'

Iliyan Stefanov

22'

S. Ashkovski← A. Trajkovski

27'

Bojan Miovski

41'

Ilia Gruev

46'

N. Iliev← Y. Karabelyov

46'

F. Krastev← I. Stefanov

50'

K. Despodov↳ R. Kirilov

61'

L. Doriev← M. Ristovski

61'

S. Spirovski← B. Miovski

79'

Filip Krastev

83'

Y. Stoyanov← V. Popov

85'

D. Babunski← S. Ashkovski

88'

88'

89'

90+3'

90+3'

I. Yordanov← K. Despodov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FYRBulgaria

Overview

46%Possession54%

9Total Shots13

5Corners1

10Fouls24

Shots

9Total Shots13

3On Target5

4Off Target3

2Blocked5

4Inside Box6

5Outside Box7

Passing

46%Possession54%

349Total Passes420

218Accurate Passes319

62%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls24

3Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

2Offsides3