Bulgaria 1–1 FYR Macedonia: Result & Stats

Bulgaria

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FYR Macedonia

K. Despodov 13'

M. Ristovski 50'

6/2/2022

UEFA Nations League · League C - 1Huvepharma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Bulgaria36%

×Draw28%

FYR Macedonia37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BulgariaExpected goals in this matchFYR Macedonia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.19

Bulgaria

1.17

FYR Macedonia

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.33

creates per match

1.20

1.17

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Bulgaria

1.33

FYR Macedonia

1.20

allows per match

Bulgaria

1.17

FYR Macedonia

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bulgaria+0.00on par

FYR Macedonia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulgaria ↓

FYR Macedonia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Bulgaria or draw

63%

Bulgaria or FYR Macedonia

72%

Draw or FYR Macedonia

64%

Winning margin

Bulgaria wins by 2+

15%

FYR Macedonia wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bulgaria 1+ goals

69%

Bulgaria 2+ goals

33%

Bulgaria 3+ goals

11%

FYR Macedonia 1+ goals

70%

FYR Macedonia 2+ goals

33%

FYR Macedonia 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bulgaria (draw refunded)

49%

FYR Macedonia (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulgaria at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

FYR Macedonia away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulgaria attack 1.33 + FYR Macedonia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

FYR Macedonia attack 1.20 + Bulgaria defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bulgaria scores more

36%

level

28%

FYR Macedonia scores more

37%

FYR Macedonia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FYR Macedonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

E. Bardhi

FYR Macedonia · M

7.5

Match Events

13'

K. Despodov↳ T. Nedelev

45'

Georgi Milanov

46'

G. Minchev← A. Iliev

46'

D. Babunski← D. Churlinov

46'

B. Miovski← A. Trajkovski

50'

M. Ristovski

59'

G. Kostadinov← F. Krastev

64'

Stefan Aškovski

71'

I. Stefanov← T. Nedelev

72'

B. Nikolov← S. Spirovski

73'

D. Babunski← M. Ristovski

74'

Eljif Elmas

87'

M. Minchev← G. Milanov

88'

K. Ristevski← D. Velkovski

90+2'

Georgi Minchev

90+6'

Martin MinchevPenalty cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BulgariaFYR

Overview

44%Possession56%

4Total Shots15

1Corners5

14Fouls12

Shots

4Total Shots15

1On Target5

1Off Target5

2Blocked5

2Inside Box8

2Outside Box7

Passing

44%Possession56%

358Total Passes450

248Accurate Passes338

69%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3