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FYR Macedonia vs Austria — Euro Championship 2024

FYR Macedonia
FYR Macedonia
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Austria
Austria
M. Hinteregger 18' (OG)
E. Bejtulai 86' (OG)
M. Arnautović 82', 62' (pen)
V. Lazaro 39'
6/10/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 4Toše Proeski Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FYR Macedonia31%
×Draw25%
Austria44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FYR Macedonia
1.25
Austria
1.56

Austria creates 25% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

FYR Macedonia
1.29
Austria
1.56

allows per match

FYR Macedonia
1.57
Austria
1.22

finishing

FYR Macedonia+0.00on par
Austria+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FYR Macedonia ↓

Austria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FYR Macedonia or draw
56%
FYR Macedonia or Austria
75%
Draw or Austria
69%

Winning margin

FYR Macedonia wins by 2+
13%
Austria wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

FYR Macedonia 1+ goals
71%
FYR Macedonia 2+ goals
36%
FYR Macedonia 3+ goals
13%
Austria 1+ goals
79%
Austria 2+ goals
46%
Austria 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

FYR Macedonia (draw refunded)
41%
Austria (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FYR Macedonia at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Austria away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FYR Macedonia attack 1.29 + Austria defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Austria attack 1.56 + FYR Macedonia defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FYR Macedonia scores more
31%
level
25%
Austria scores more
44%

Austria at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Austria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
M. ArnautovićAustriaAustria · F
8.2

Match Events

18'
M. HintereggerOwn goal
26'
Eljif Elmas
39'
V. Lazaro↳ K. Laimer
46'
S. Posch← A. Dragović
56'
M. Radeski← I. Nestorovski
56'
K. Ristevski← E. Elmas
61'
Egzon Bejtulai
62'
M. ArnautovićPenalty
67'
F. Hasani← B. Nikolov
76'
Darko Velkovski
82'
M. Arnautović↳ M. Sabitzer
84'
Enis Bardhi
86'
E. BejtulaiOwn goal
89'
G. Burgstaller← M. Arnautović
90+3'
L. Schaub← M. Sabitzer

Possession

39%FYR

Shots

6FYR

Pass accuracy

48%FYR

Statistics

FYRAustria
Overview
39%Possession61%
6Total Shots20
2Corners7
11Fouls14
Shots
6Total Shots20
0On Target8
3Off Target6
3Blocked6
5Inside Box18
1Outside Box2
Passing
39%Possession61%
369Total Passes578
291Accurate Passes495
79%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
5Saves0
Discipline
11Fouls14
4Yellow Cards0
1Offsides2

Euro Championship: FYR Macedonia 1–4 Austria

Austria beat FYR Macedonia 4-1 in Euro Championship on June 10, 2019.

Goals: M. Hinteregger (18' o.g.), V. Lazaro (39'), M. Arnautović (62' pen, 82'), E. Bejtulai (86' o.g.).

Austria controlled possession (61%) and registered 20 shots to 6.

The match was played at Toše Proeski Arena in Skopje.