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Austria vs FYR Macedonia — Euro Championship 2024

Austria
Austria
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FYR Macedonia
FYR Macedonia
S. Lainer 48'
D. Alaba 7'
V. Stojanovski 90+3'
11/16/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 9Ernst-Happel-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Austria57%
×Draw24%
FYR Macedonia19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria
1.73
FYR Macedonia
0.88

Austria creates 97% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Austria
1.89
FYR Macedonia
0.86

allows per match

Austria
0.89
FYR Macedonia
1.57

finishing

Austria+0.00on par
FYR Macedonia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria ↓

FYR Macedonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Austria or draw
81%
Austria or FYR Macedonia
76%
Draw or FYR Macedonia
43%

Winning margin

Austria wins by 2+
32%
FYR Macedonia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Austria 1+ goals
82%
Austria 2+ goals
52%
Austria 3+ goals
25%
FYR Macedonia 1+ goals
59%
FYR Macedonia 2+ goals
22%
FYR Macedonia 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Austria (draw refunded)
75%
FYR Macedonia (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

FYR Macedonia away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria attack 1.89 + FYR Macedonia defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.73

FYR Macedonia attack 0.86 + Austria defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Austria scores more
57%
level
24%
FYR Macedonia scores more
19%

Austria at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Austria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
D. AlabaAustriaAustria · M
8.5

Match Events

7'
D. Alaba↳ S. Lainer
13'
V. Stojanovski← A. Trajkovski
46'
G. Zajkov← M. Mladenovski
48'
S. Lainer↳ A. Dragović
62'
D. Avramovski← K. Toshevski
79'
C. Trimmel← V. Lazaro
90'
S. Ilsanker← K. Laimer
90+2'
M. Gregoritsch← D. Alaba
90+3'
V. Stojanovski↳ E. Bardhi

Possession

53%Austria

Shots

17Austria

Pass accuracy

51%Austria

Statistics

AustriaFYR
Overview
53%Possession47%
17Total Shots9
6Corners4
20Fouls7
Shots
17Total Shots9
8On Target4
6Off Target2
3Blocked3
12Inside Box4
5Outside Box5
Passing
53%Possession47%
505Total Passes441
420Accurate Passes355
83%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
Discipline
20Fouls7
4Offsides0

Euro Championship: Austria 2–1 FYR Macedonia

Austria beat FYR Macedonia 2-1 in Euro Championship on November 16, 2019.

Goals: D. Alaba (7'), S. Lainer (48'), V. Stojanovski (90+3').

Austria controlled possession (53%) and registered 17 shots to 9.

The match was played at Ernst-Happel-Stadion in Wien.