FYR Macedonia 2–0 Armenia: Result & Stats

FYR Macedonia

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Armenia

B. Miovski 78'

E. Bardhi 70'

9/10/2024

UEFA Nations League · League C - 2Toše Proeski Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

FYR Macedonia61%

×Draw21%

Armenia19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FYR MacedoniaExpected goals in this matchArmenia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.06

FYR Macedonia

2.08

Armenia

1.06

FYR Macedonia creates 96% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

1.92

creates per match

1.46

0.67

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

FYR Macedonia

1.92

Armenia

1.46

allows per match

FYR Macedonia

0.67

Armenia

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FYR Macedonia+0.00on par

Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FYR Macedonia ↓

Armenia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

FYR Macedonia or draw

81%

FYR Macedonia or Armenia

79%

Draw or Armenia

39%

Winning margin

FYR Macedonia wins by 2+

37%

Armenia wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

FYR Macedonia 1+ goals

87%

FYR Macedonia 2+ goals

61%

FYR Macedonia 3+ goals

34%

Armenia 1+ goals

65%

Armenia 2+ goals

29%

Armenia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

FYR Macedonia (draw refunded)

76%

Armenia (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FYR Macedonia at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Armenia away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FYR Macedonia attack 1.92 + Armenia defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.08

Armenia attack 1.46 + FYR Macedonia defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

FYR Macedonia scores more

61%

level

21%

Armenia scores more

19%

FYR Macedonia at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "FYR Macedonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

S. Dimitrievski

FYR Macedonia · G

8.5

Match Events

4'

L. Qamili← D. Churlinov

39'

44'

45+4'

45+4'

45+4'

46'

N. Serafimov← D. Babunski

46'

A. Serobyan← G. Ranos

54'

Nair Tiknizyan

59'

J. Atanasov← I. Alimi

59'

T. Kostadinov← L. Qamili

66'

V. Bichakhchyan← E. Sevikyan

66'

E. Grigoryan← N. Tiknizyan

70'

Lucas Zelarayán

70'

E. Bardhi

74'

H. Harutyunyan← L. Zelarayán

78'

B. Miovski↳ S. Dimitrievski

83'

J. Manev← S. Ashkovski

86'

Nikola Serafimov

86'

G. Manvelyan← A. Calisir

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FYRArmenia

Overview

42%Possession58%

13Total Shots14

4Corners3

8Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots14

5On Target7

6Off Target2

2Blocked5

8Inside Box3

5Outside Box11

Passing

42%Possession58%

366Total Passes522

297Accurate Passes441

81%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

7Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls12

5Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides4