FYR Macedonia 3–1 Armenia: Result & Stats

FYR Macedonia

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Armenia

Erdon Daci 88'

Milan Ristovski 59'

Aleksandar Trajkovski 43'

Eduard Spertsyan 90+4'

10/17/2023

Friendlies · Friendlies 2Stadion Blagoj Istatov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FYR Macedonia66%

×Draw19%

Armenia15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FYR MacedoniaExpected goals in this matchArmenia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

0.94

FYR Macedonia

2.21

Armenia

0.94

FYR Macedonia creates 135% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

1.33

creates per match

1.10

0.78

allows per match

3.10

creates per match

FYR Macedonia

1.33

Armenia

1.10

allows per match

FYR Macedonia

0.78

Armenia

3.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FYR Macedonia+0.00on par

Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FYR Macedonia ↓

Armenia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

FYR Macedonia or draw

85%

FYR Macedonia or Armenia

81%

Draw or Armenia

34%

Winning margin

FYR Macedonia wins by 2+

42%

Armenia wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

FYR Macedonia 1+ goals

89%

FYR Macedonia 2+ goals

65%

FYR Macedonia 3+ goals

38%

Armenia 1+ goals

61%

Armenia 2+ goals

24%

Armenia 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FYR Macedonia (draw refunded)

82%

Armenia (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FYR Macedonia at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Armenia away — creates 1.10, concedes 3.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FYR Macedonia attack 1.33 + Armenia defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.21

Armenia attack 1.10 + FYR Macedonia defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

FYR Macedonia scores more

66%

level

19%

Armenia scores more

15%

FYR Macedonia at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "FYR Macedonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

Isnik Alimi

43'

Aleksandar Trajkovski↳ Eljif Elmas

46'

Tigran Barseghyan← Vahan Bichakhchyan

46'

Edgar Sevikyan← Kamo Hovhannisyan

46'

Eduard Spertsyan← Artur Serobyan

47'

Taron Voskanyan

55'

Darko Churlinov← Aleksandar Trajkovski

55'

Jani Atanasov← Arijan Ademi

57'

Styopa Mkrtchyan← Taron Voskanyan

59'

Milan Ristovski

62'

Stefan Aškovski← Bojan Dimoski

68'

Enis Bardhi← Dimitar Mitrovski

72'

Agon Elezi← Isnik Alimi

78'

Zhirayr Margaryan← Grant-Leon Ranos

84'

Erdon Daci← Milan Ristovski

88'

Erdon Daci

90+4'

Eduard Spertsyan

90'

André Calisir← Georgiy Harutyunyan

Possession

Shots

Statistics

FYRArmenia

Overview

65%Possession35%

10Total Shots11

5Corners6

12Fouls20

Shots

10Total Shots11

5On Target4

2Off Target3

3Blocked4

Passing

65%Possession35%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls20

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

3Offsides2