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Fyllingsdalen vs Gneist — 3. Division - Girone 3 2026

Fyllingsdalen
Fyllingsdalen
Preview
13:00
Gneist
Gneist
9/12/20263. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Round 19
41%
Fyllingsdalen
model favours
41%20%39%

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 3 meetings

brightest fact of this match

2–2
likely score
81%
over 2.5 goals
79%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fyllingsdalen41%
×Draw20%
Gneist39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fyllingsdalen
2.23
Gneist
2.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Fyllingsdalen
1.29
Gneist
1.67

allows per match

Fyllingsdalen
2.71
Gneist
3.17

finishing

Fyllingsdalen+0.00on par
Gneist+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fyllingsdalen ↓

Gneist →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Fyllingsdalen or draw
61%
Fyllingsdalen or Gneist
80%
Draw or Gneist
59%

Winning margin

Fyllingsdalen wins by 2+
23%
Gneist wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Fyllingsdalen 1+ goals
89%
Fyllingsdalen 2+ goals
65%
Fyllingsdalen 3+ goals
38%
Gneist 1+ goals
89%
Gneist 2+ goals
64%
Gneist 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Fyllingsdalen (draw refunded)
51%
Gneist (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fyllingsdalen at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

Gneist away — creates 1.67, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fyllingsdalen attack 1.29 + Gneist defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.23

Gneist attack 1.67 + Fyllingsdalen defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fyllingsdalen scores more
41%
level
20%
Gneist scores more
39%

Fyllingsdalen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fyllingsdalen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 3 meetings averaged 3.7 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Fyllingsdalen
LDLDD
Gneist
LLWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fyllingsdalen face Gneist (3. Division - Girone 3)

3. Division - Girone 3 returns with Fyllingsdalen hosting Gneist. Match starts September 12, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.